Politically Purple

Yesterday, I decided to delve myself into the nuts and bolts of political life… by watching the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws committee meeting… all day. Yes, call me insane. Go ahead, I agree.

What transpired was political theater we have not seen in a long time in this nation. For anyone who doesn’t know, this committee stripped Michigan and Florida of all of their Delegates last year, and as per their right, these states can petition to have their delegates reinstated. This is somewhat historic in that because the race is so close, they were pressured to do something to make these two states represented at the Convention in August.

In my opinion, they were punished, and we shoudl move on… but Politics speak louder than common sense… and thus… here we are. After 6-7 hours of empassioned please from Florida and Michigan elected officials, calculated salvos from the Hillary and Obama campaigns, and severe postureing by the Hillary advisors ont he committee… an agreement was made.

Florida
Honnoring the Jan 29 primary result (which had both Hillary and Obama’s name on the ballot) and awarding .5 votes for every delegate, Pledged and Super.

Michigan
Seating all delegates, and awarding them .5 votes… for both pledged and super. Due to Obama not being on the ballot, and Clinton being on the ballot, the Michigan state Democratic Party looked at the Poll results and exit polls, and asked for Hillary to recieve 69 delegates to Obama 59 Delegates. The Committee approved.

Fallout

This is not an easy situaiton, as the committee gave their final statements, some die hard Hillary supporters were angry, and began to protest during the meeting. If there is anything that can doom any chance of a nomination, this is it. Superdelegates watching this saw, with abject horror, the ugliness of the situation, and the need to be able to go and unite the party. The decision yesterday did not change the dynamics of the race. Hillary gained 25 or so delegates, but Obama is about 65 delegates from the nomination. The Superdelegates will need to wholesale overturn the results in a major way to ensure a Clinton win.

My plan still stands. We will see 20-25 Supers declare between now and Tuesday. You will also see several Add-Ons come onboard, and a few Edwards Delegates swtich over. The pledged delegates will push Obama over the top, and he will declare in St. Paul (a nice peice of political theater THERE, i might add)

In 2000, The Democrats wailed and yelled, and screamed and stamped their feet that Gore won the Popular vote, and regardless of the Electoral College, he should be President. The Popular Vote as their central argument ran counter to how the game was played. The game was Electoral College votes… not popular votes. It wasn’t pretty, and it didn’t seem right… but that is the game we were playing. It is like a Basketball team saying the won the game because they had more fans in the stands, but lost on points on the scoreboard.

Obama (and his team) learned. The game of this contest was Delegates, and they played a shrewd, calculating game in order to maximine their delegate totals. He went to Idaho while Hillary stayed in California, and it payed in dividends.

Now, Hillary is bringing the Popular vote argument again. Her team hasn’t learned. The goal was not popular votes, the goal is delegates, and Obama used the same strategy as Bush did… capture most of the small states, rack up huge totals in those states, and maximize the positive results. We haven’t seen a Democratic Candidate use such a cunning strategy in decades. From all indications, the Super Delegates (men and women alike) are lining up for the candidate who understood the goal much better than anyone else, and was smart enough to invest in the right places, and exploit opportunities his rival didn’t take in order to win.

 Hillary’s position in this race is not because the “Unfair” caucus system, or disenfranchised states not getting their say. It is because her team failed to see the bigger picture.

Lately, the Clinton campaign has been using recent polling to make the case that she is more electable in the the General election this fall.  The feather in her cap seems to be the Kentucky poll that came out last week that has Clinton up by 9 and Obama down by 15 in the State in a match up against McCain.

Currently, according to electoral-vote.com she is up 327-194, on www.mydd.com she is up 338-200, on www.fivethirtyeight.com she is up 286-252. On each site, she is outperforming Obama handidly.

 I would also like for you to look at this map: From May 29….. 2004 from Electoral-vote.com  (link). In this map, John Kerry is leading Bush by 327-211, with West Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Georgia being barely for Bush. I remember looking at this map and exclaim, “Bush is Done!”

But alas, my 23 year old logic was flawed. I relied too much on polls 5 months before an election to proclaim victory. When looking at both Clinton and Kerry Maps, I see a lof of similarities, seemily soft GOP support in the upper south and tantalizing pickings from other states.

The Obama map is decidedly different. The Appalachia curse he has keeps Kentucky and West Virginia out of his grasp, but Virginia, North Carolina seem to be in reach. He also stakes out strength in the West, where Clinton has decidedly less support.

 But the point of this exercise is to show how finicky polls can be 5 months before an election. There are a lot of factors that need to be taken into consideration. Though Obama is well known to me and other political junkies, there are many who do not know him well. But that is changing quickly. Polls taken now show the potential of what the candidate can achieve.

The other thought is… if Clinton wins the Nomination, we would have a candidate and the DNC either broke or in debt to McCain and the RNC’s 60 million+ on hand money situation. What is the strength of a candidate who had to dig into her personal coffers not once, not twice, but three times to keep the campaign afloat. What does this say of your candidacy, what does it say of her ability to be fiscally responsible? Will she be forces to accept public financing?

the Super Delegates will look at all of this. They will look at who can win this fall. they will look at who will have the money to make it to November 4th, they will look for the candidate who can attack in multiple states, and create a coalition that will assure their election/re-election. they will look for the candidate that won’t start at a money disadvantage to the competition, or could be hamstrung in the clutch by insufficient money.

 The popular vote is a consideration, but if i were a shrewd politician, I would look at wherethe party can get 270+ and who can afford the revenue stream to make it november 4 and fight in so many states that it bankrupts the other side.

In my opinion, Clinton can’t match Obama on those merits.

Believe me, those are words I didn’t think would come out of my computer… Georgia? A swing state?

 There are a lot of “Ifs” in that statment, but given the right circumstances, Georgia could be a surprising Obama state.

This past weekend, the Libertarian party has selected Bob Barr, former Representative from Georgia’s 7th Congressional District. This district has a PVI of R+19 and has been solidly GOP for a long time. Also, the district is located in one of the heavily populated Atlanta Subburbs.

What is surprising is that in polls that include Barr, he polls upwards to 6%! (link). Now of course, it is early, he most likely doesn’t have that much support, and so on. But if he peels off a sizeable chunk of peopel in Georgia, then there is a distinct possibiliy that a 1992 Democratic victory can happen all over again.

If Bar polls well in Georgia
If the African American Vote exceeds 40%
If there is a overwheming push for generic Democrtic votes in general.

Georgia could flip.

So, yesterday, Supedelegate Dennis Cardoza (D-CA) switched his endorsement from Hillary Clinton to Obama. This in itself is not a huge newsworthy item, 9 other Clinton SD’s have switched allegiances during this contest, and Cardoza is not a very well known figure.

But, Al Giordano wrote an interesting column on “The Cardoza 40″ (link) that made me curious. The Cardoza 40 is a group of both Super and Pledged Clinton Delegates from California who are planning to switch their allegiance from Hillary to Obama. Apparently, they have informed the Clinton Campaign that if she does not withdrawl her campaign and support Obama, they will slowly, by 2’s and 3’s switch over to Obama leading up to the convention.

This is big news if it is true. a switch of 40 Delegates would mean +40 for Obama, and -40 for Clinton, making the spread a total of 80. For the math involved, this makes it even harder for Clinton to claim victory, Funny math or no. This report came out and started to gain traction when the Clinton “Assasination” comment came out. A gaffe if there ever was one. The Cardoza 40 is getting buried, but they are still there, indicating another stab for Hillary.

This weekend: +7 Delagates will be selected in various states, and all are looking to go to Obama.

One of the largest arguments in the Hillary Clinton Campaign right now is the inclusion of Florida and Michigan in the Delegate process. In her view, Michigan and Florida must be seated, despite their rule breaking back in January.

Almost everyone agrees that they should be seated, but the devil is in the details as they say in how they are awarded. There are several scenarios that could happen, ranging from No delegates, to full Delegates. For this conversation, I am going to say that Hillary Clinton wins her fight and gets both Florida and Michigan Seated with their full delegates, and full voting rights. The Delegates are based on the actual results.

 If that is all taken into effect, this would be the current Delegate Totals (Majority would be 2209)

Obama: 2041 (168 To the Nomination)
Clinton: 1973 (236 to the Nomination)
Edwards: 20
Uncommitted: 55 (Michigan had an uncommitted section, the 55 Delegates would be chosen but with no loyalty to anyone)
Pledged Delegates Remaining: 84
Super Delegates Remaining: 242

I would expect that half of Edwards 20 Delegates would flow over to Obama based on the recent trending.
I would also give Hillary 47 (55%) of the remaining pledged Delegates out there.
So, if no Supers declare between now and June 3, this is where we would stand.
Obama: 2089 (120 from Nomination)
Clinton: 2020 (189 from Nomination)
Edwards: 10
Uncommitted: 55
Super Delegates: 242

This is giving Hillary every single break in the book, and assuming that no more Supers will commit to either candidate. Hillary will need 78% of the Supers left to clinch the Nomination given these rosy numbers. This also assumes that not a single uncommitted Michigan Delegate choses sides.

If I give the Uncommitted delegates a 50/50  (27 Obama/28 Clinton) split to the candidates… again, incredibly generous… 
Obama: 2116 (93 left)
Clinton: 2048 (161 left)
She will need 66.5% of the Supers to commit to her… something that is more obtainable, but still unlikely.

What I think will really happen
I believe that the Michigan Plan of splitting the Delegates 69-59 (favor: Clinton) is fair. Given it was devised by both State officials and Clinton supporters in the state, I think it works best for them. Florida would stand as is. The Pledged votes would be counted as a half vote (their punishment for cutting in line), and the SD’s get a full vote. (Honestly, I think the Mi and FL SD’s shoudl be stripped because of their stupidity in getting the Democrats into this mess to begin with… but I digress)

Given this scenario this is the numbers: Delegates to the Nomination: 2163
Obama: 2054 (109 left)
Clinton: 1900.5 (262 left)
Edwards: 14.5
Super Delegates: 244
Elected Delegates outstanding: 86

Then it becomes almost Mathmatically impossible for her to win the nomination. 80% of the rest of the Delegates. and giving her a 60/40 edge in pledged Delegates in the last three races (52 Delegates)… she would have 210 Delegates left to the Nomination and then would need to capture 86% of the SD’s available.

 So the takeaway from this? Basically, she needs to prevent 40 SD’s from going over to Obama by June 3 or she is completely done… regardless of the scenario. Otherwise, it become too daunting to overcome, even in the sunny day scenario.

Today, the California Supreme Court will relase their decision on whether Gay Marriage should be allowed in California. If they agree with gay-rights activists, California will become the second state to offer Same-Sex Marriages. Currently, they allow Civil Unions.

I hope this turns out well… but regardless fo the outcome, it will be appealed to the Supreme Court… and then it will be decided.

… and promptly shoots himself in the foot.

(Link to WaPo article)

 Jack Johnson is the current County Executive of Prince Georges County Maryland, having won re-election to the post in 2006. He is term limited by the position, and rumors have been circulating that he has his eye on bigger political offices after 2010. The issue that Mr. Johnson has however, is that he is not particularly well liked in PG county, and his cronyism issues have plagued him since his re-election bid. (For a prime example, look a Keith Washington as exhibit A Link).

In February, Maryland voted for Barack Obama by 61% state wide. Obama won PG county by an astounding, but unsurprisingly 79% of the vote. According to the Delegate selection in the state of Maryland (every state does it differently), most of the delegate selection was done by the vote in each congressional district (they are elected by the people in the district, and then apportioned due to gender and the percentage vote in the district). There are additional “at-large” delegates, that are chosen according to the State-wide results. Jack Johnson was chosen to be a Clinton at-large Pledged Delegate. Clinton’s team vetted him, and push him to be selected, and the Maryland Democratic State Central Committee  approved him.

Today, he has announced that he is switching his support to Obama, and is pushing the Maryland Democratic Leaders (Governor O’Malley and Senator Mikulski) to release all Clinton Delegates so they can realign with Obama to create party unity.

All, I can say is: WOW.

When Clinton first gave the argument that pledged delegates were not bound by law, or anything to support the candidate they were “supposed to” by the vote, I knew it could come back and smack her in between the eyes. Her goal was to peel off Pledged Delegates from Obama, and narrow the gap she faced. Now, with it seemingly inevitable that Obama is winning, the opposite has begun to happen.

Jack Johnson however, is a complete idiot if he thinks that he will use this to propel himself into another political seat. An Obama supporter until December of 2007, he switched to Clinton. One could reason that he would be a big fish in a small pond: an African American in support of Hillary. If Hillary wins, he would be in good with the Clintons, and would use it to his political advantage. Also, as per Party rules with apportionment due to Gender and race, he stood a much better shot at becoming a delegate under Clinton than Obama. Now, only 5 months later, he has switched back. This makes him look opportunistic, and even more smarmy than his reputation has of him. Why now Jack Johnson? Because you see the writing on the wall, and you backed the candidate that ended up losing, and you want to get on the O train again?

His plan to push the pledged Delegates to Obama is insanity. I know why he is pushing it, but I think it is foolish. If Maryland does this, especially before Hillary drops out, it would create even more divisiveness between the Democratic Factions. Jack Johnson, STFU and be patient. You took a political gambled and you lost, don’t hurt yourself even more by weaseling yourself back into Obama’s good graces.

At least your a Pledged Delegate, right? Maybe that was his plan all along…

ugh… Idiot.

I will do an update on the race coming this week.

May 6: Tuesday
Obama: +3
Clinton: +0

May 7: Wednesday
Obama: +4 (+3 Endorsing, +1 Switching from Clinton to Obama)
Clinton: +0 (+1 Endorsing, -1 For loss of Endorsement)

May 8: Thursday
Obama: +2
Clinton: +0

May 9: Friday
Obama: +9 (+8 Endorsing, +1 Switching from Clinton to Obama)
Clinton: +1 (+2 Endorsing, -1 For loss of Endorsement)

May 10: Saturday
Obama: +5 (+4 Endorsements, +1 Switching from Clinton to Obama)
Clinton: +0 (+1 Endorsing, -1 for loss of Endorsement)

May 11: Sunday
Obama: +1
Clinton: +0

May 12: Monday
Obama: +1
Clinton:+0

Seven Day Total:

Obama: + 25 (22 Endorsing for First time, 3 Switch from Clinton to Obama)
Clinton: +1 (4 Endorsing, -3 Loss from switched endorsements)

I am still right in line with my 2025 Theory for Obama. I expect more Delegates to come in today.

All numbers from from Democratic Convention Watch (link)