They did have Laura Bush speak today… around 4pmish. As of right now, there is nothing… NOTHING going on at the RNC. I think this is a major blunder (for several reasons)

1) I figured the Republicans would use their Prime Time media to showcase the “compassionate” conservatives in the party,  in order to implore the people watching to give money to the Red Cross. They have the time, why not use it? I am imagining a Katrina-esque campaign. Instead, the convention hall is empty. utterly empty. Where are the delegates? They should be on the TV screen, calling people to donate, and give the impression of pushing for relief. They passed on a tremendous opportunity here.

2) With the News of the Palin Pregnacy, they are ceeding control of the media narrative. Without the convention to distract and drown out the noise, the 24/7 Cable news stations have two things to discuss, Gustav and the Pregnacy. All three of the Cable Giants (CNN, MSNBC, and evenFox) are bouncing back and forth between the two subjects. (Right now, MSNBC is on Gustav, Bill O’Reilly is talking about the Palin Pregnancy, and  CNNis transitioning from Gustav to Palin… in an empty Convention center, and finally CSPAN is re-running protestor speeches from earlier today ).

The McCain campaign has lost the media cycle, not to Obama, but to the Media.

3) Starting Tomorrow, the convention has three days to accomplish: Introduce Palin, Convince Palin is the right choice, Boost McCain, and attack Obama. It seems that attacking Obama will take a backseat to the other three themes the more they ceed this story, the more they need to reassure the delegates and the GOP faithful.

Obama not taking the bait, makes it harder to put the blame on his campaign on this story.

4) I just wish that the GOP actually did something in Prime Time, it makes it seem that they are not even trying to put in any help. I am not a supporter of McCain, but I am just shocked the GOP didn’t take the Prime Time to show their softer side.

Also, with Hurricane Hanna potentially bearing down on Florida/Georgia on Thursday Night… Not good for McCain.

By all accounts, this is not a good week for the Republicans in branding their Presidential Team.

The  Cable Round up now: O’Reilly still on the Palin Pregnancy (he is saying Obama is  classy!), MSNBC (Obermann) is still on  Gustav (and Approaching Hanna), CNN is on the Palin Pregnacy and what her speech on Wednesday will need to be (on the floor of the still empty convention floor), and CSPAN is still on the War Rally coverage.

 But, last night I got to see chunks of the first night of the Democractic National Convention. The poision I chose to watch last night’s proceedings was MSNBC. I find them the least cringe worth, even though Pat Buchanan wants me to gouge my eyes out.  I watched as Nancy Pelosi took the stage, and I commented that she looked radiant in her white pant suit. However, her speech was full of fail. I am shocked she is Speaker of the House, because seriously, bitch was BAD at speaking. She was halting, and she was just not good. No wonder she was not prime time.

After the talking heads. (blah blah blah) Caroline Kennedy did her ditty. Then the inspirational video on Teddy. For me, Teddy is not the firebrand that many GOP’ers think of him. I think he has been a good Senator, and when talking about his life’s work, it is amazing what he has accomplished. Given that, I don’t see why he was “so horrible.” When he took the stage, everyone (of course cheered). His speech, unlike Pelosi’s, was great. His age is getting to him, his cancer treatments undoubtedly making his voice falter at moments, but his speech was very good. It could be the last great speech that he will make on the national stage. Not to be morbid, but he is getting up there in age. ironically, he is 72, just like McCain, and I couldn’t see putting Teddy Kennedy on the ticket.

Then the talking heads effused about Kennedy. And then, Michele Obama came on.

Some say that this was a wasted night, that the Democrats did not attack attack attack on John McCain as they should have. I think differently. Last night’s message was that Obama is not an elitist, that he is an average fella who works hard, and who cares about the same things that average americans care about. It is not Michele’s job to go after John McCain, because in doing so, she would be opened up to attacks by the other side, which nobody wants. Michele’s job last night was to humanize Barack so that we can identify with him.

In her mission, Michele succeeded. As my roommate astutely pointed out, Michele can talk about the first time she met Barack because neither were married. She can talk about falling in love, and introducing her love to her family. She can talk about “traditional moral values” in a way that McCain can’t. What will Cindi talk about next week? How they met while he was married, how he filed for marrige while he was still married to another woman? That speech was crafted in that they can portray a solid marriage, with solid upbrining, and no hint of moral ambiguity.

But the coup de gras came after her speech when barack showed up on the jumbotron. With the kids by her side, they took the microphones and started talking. A 6 year old, excited to see her daddy spoke, and in that moment, we saw more of what a family man Obama is than anything Michele could have said.  It drove home the point, “He has kids who interupt him, who ask silly questions, and who love attention, just like (most) of the rest of us.”

The rest of the Convention will hit hard on the Economy, on the War, on the Gaffes, on McCain, but for last night, it was not about McCain, but about the Democrats, and perhaps their ability to not obsess about him (like they did with Bush in 2004) is their biggest advantage of all.

Before hitting the panic button Democrats, or begin cheering Republicans, there are some facts/issues to consider for both sides. 

1) The race almost always tightens: What this means is that the race is hardly ever a blow-out, and even if it is… it doesn’t show up until later. 

2) Unlike in previous elections, the polls are becoming skewed, and there is nothing anyone can do about it. 15% of Adults only carry Cell Phones, and Cell Phones are not contacted for polling. Furthermore, over 22% of Adults have a combined Landline/Cell phone combination, but only use their cell phones for calls. We are talking about 1/5 to 1/4 of Americans whose primary telephone service is the cell phone. (link) 

What does this mean? It means that polls are being skewed towards landline only people. People who tend to be older, and more conservative… which means things may seem to be tighter than what they really are. 

3) Election come down to turnout. Period. the Obama campaign has been mobilizing a massive MASSIVE ground game for this election. Helped, ironically , by the protracted primary, Obama has the infranstructure to tap into for the General election, and he is pushing it hard. States like Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and others… Obama ground game has been building throughout the summer, and McCain has yet to begin to match that effort. McCain is not sending anyone to Indiana for instance… something that could haunt him. the fact that McCain had ceeded the ground game for the last two months may be what loses him the election… especially after the Convention, he is tied to only 84 Million Dollars. He will have to rely solely on the RNC to develop that Ground game, and that is when he will need them the most on Advertising. 

4) Do not underestimate the Euthiasm Gap: The GOP is still shaky on McCain, and it will take a lot for the GOP to match Obama in ethusiam on Election Day.

5) Registration changes elections. More Democrats are being registered than Republicans… and they are often taking out of polling equations because fo that fact. (because they are less likely to vote). In Nevada in particular, Democratic Registration has boomed, and continued to boom since the Caucus in January. If Obama’s massive ground game is in place, expect an equally massive GOTV in November. 

6) In August 1980, Reagan was trailing Carter. 

7) Montana, North Dakota, Alaska, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico: These are the states to look out for on both sides of the coin. You can throw in Virginia, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio as well… but the Mountain West is where this will ultimately be won/lost. 

The Youth vote could be pivotal: Can the ground game (of either campaign) be able to mobilize their supports in with younger voters to actually get out the vote? Seeing the gains from 2004 (despite still be dissapointing), there is a chance they can still build on those numbers. Only time will tell.

We have 2.5 months left of this. 2.5 months before Iowa, Obama was running third in Iowa. We have a long way to go, and it is good to preach patience. (I know, weird coming from me)

But the question is… Who will Obama choose.

For Obama, I think that it will come down to Biden, Bagh, Sebelieus, and Clark/Hagel.

Biden would be good because Delaware is reliably Blue, and losing Biden to the VP slot will mean that the Democrats will not lose a seat. He has a history of putting his foot in his mouth however. I think Biden would do better as Secretary of State.

Bagh would be a good counterpart for Obama: foriegn relations experience, another midwesterner, Clinton supporter… but still nice to Obama. His downfall is if they win… the Democrats would lose the seat in Reliably red Indiana… however… Indiana has a chance to go blue this election… but I don’t think that it will stick right now.

Sebelieus is a  favorite of mine. I think she is perfect. She is out of Washington, she has converted more GOP’ers in Kansas than anyone thought possible. She stands up when needed, and will compromise when it is called for. She would solidify the female vote (I believe), and her experience will greatly help Obama. THe only question is… will America elect a black man and woman for the top two slots? I would like to think yes.

I throw Clark and Hagel as dark Horses. Clark woudl bring Military experience… but his attack Dog status hurts him. Hagel would end the election. A bi-partisan ticket would destroy McCain’s campaign. But it is next  to impossible. Hagel is not like Obama in many MANY ways… so I doubt it will happen.

But what about Lincoln Chafee…. hmmmmm

 So, over the last month, we have seen this basic story thread. The McCain campaign (I don’t believe that John has control over his own campaign anymore, but that is another post) says or does something completely outlandish. The MSM responds by going crazy, talking about it because… shit, what else do they have to talk about? The Obama Campaign responds back in some way. *Rinse, and Repeat*

 What that has left us with is a situation were polls are stagnanted (+2 - +6 for Obama), and Obama leading in almost all of the truely swing states (PA, OH, MI, CO, NM, WI, MN, IA) and close in others (MT, NV, VA, NC, FL, AK, ND). Obama is trying to look presidential, McCain calls him arrogant.

 I hope McCain’s campaign can bring in their A game after the Conventions, because seriously… I will get to that in a moment.

This is further inflamed by the a White House Staffer accidently sending the story (which was in Der Spiegel) to the media when they met to send it to internal staff.

The issue with all of this is that it completes a week where events in Afghanistan is heating up, bolstering Obama’s stance onAfghanistan is where we should be focused as well as the change in stance with talking with Iran at all… again, beginning to fall into line with what Obama has been speaking about for over a year.

The McCain campaign has not replied to either the Al-Maliki comments, or the Obama campaigns statement coming out later in the day.

All this, and Obama is traveling the world to bolster his foriegn policy cred… it is almost as if the Bush Administration and the Iraqi leadership are working for an Obama Win in November.

Obama, by doing this, will pack the stadium with 75,000+ (oh, you know there will be plus) will show the vitality, the drive, and the immense size of his candidacy. This speech will echo for days in the Colorado skies as he jumps into the final strech of the race. Then, a week later, McCain will accept his nomination, but the comparrison will be great, and it will be made by everyone. Imagine the Green Screen, “That’s not change you can believe in” speech McCain made, compare it to Obama Speech made later that night… and then imagine the gulf between the two of them come August.

 The GOP better come up with something, and quickly, in order to counter punch this development.

Polls start to matter in July because they will, now, begin to seriously shape how the campaigns will spend their money. A poll in July is not a Hypothetical “If Barack were to win the nomination,” we have had a month to get used to him being the Candidate, and these numbers reflect that. What does this mean for the McCain? What this poll doesn’t say is that Obama will win Montana. It is still a long shot (at this point) to expect Obama to steal the state from McCain, but with obama spending resources there in the state… it will force McCain and the RNC to play defense.

Lets look at Obama two ad buys in the last month. He has aired his commericials in 18 states, and they include: Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, and Indiana. They also have it airing in Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, New Mexico, and Virginia… all agreed to be the new Swing states of 2008.

All of the states I have put forward (13 of the 18) are in States the GOP won in 2004. This means that Obama is playing heavy offense in order to secure his 270 ECV’s.

 This means that McCain’s campaign must answer back, or risk further erosion of support in this 13 states which represent 140 ECV’s. So far, McCain has only bought ads in Ohio. And has gone on the offensive in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. All three states states McCain is going on the attack with are states that Obama is already playing Defense. (New Hampshire and Iowa are the last ones rounding out the states that Obama is currently buying time with and is considered to be defending).

How long will the McCain camp wait to respond to the two ads Obama has put out in the political hinterlands? After seeing the Rasmussen Montana poll having Obama up by 5%, a Survey USA poll showing Obama up by 1-2% in Indiana, and Obama maintaining leads in Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. (which added together would equal 41 ECV’s), McCain cannot remain silent or risk losing by landslide proportions.

 July is when you decide what the playing field is going to be. Obama wants 18-25 states in play, McCain wants 12-15 states in play. If McCain decides to ignore the states Obama targets, it could seal his fate. If he tries to match Obama with ad buys in 25 states, it may spread his resources too thin.

it is a catch 22 for the McCain campaign, and will need to rely on other measure to even the playing field.

“That is the plan — we are pretty sure he’s going to come at the end of the summer,” Obama’s new Alaska state director, Kat Pustay, told the paper [Anchorage Daily News].”

Yes, that Alaska.

Why is Obama setting his sights on Alaska of all places? First, the latest polling from Rassmussen has McCain up by only 4% points in the state. Obama is pulling 41% of the vote…  that is is compared to Kerry’s 36% in 04, and Gore’s 28% in 2000.  Second, Alaksa has a wide and surprisingly diverse population. Third, it is a young state, both in terms of being a state, and is the third youngest state when it comes to median At (32.3 years old).

Lastly, and maybe most importantly, is Bob Barr. The Alaska Caucus in the Primary only gave McCain 15% of the vote, and even Ron Paul recieved more votes than McCain. Bob Barr is expected to poll somewhat better than average. Nader took 10% of the vote in 2000, Perot got 28% of the vote in 1992. If a conservative third party candidate truely makes a move, it could hurt McCain enough to give Obama the win in that state (Georgia is the only other state where that scenario could take place).

 So Obama has begun contesting the state by sending paid staff there, took out an ad in the state, and now it seems, making a campaing stop in the state.

Fun fact… the last time a Presidential Candidate to visit Alaska during the election was Richard Nixon.

 We saw how that might play out early in the campaign, when one good scare, one timely reminder of the chaos lurking in the world, probably saved McCain in New Hampshire, a state he had to win to save his candidacy - this according to McCain’s chief strategist, Charlie Black. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December was an “unfortunate event,” says Black. “But his knowledge and ability to talk about it reemphasized that this is the guy who’s ready to be Commander-in-Chief. And it helped us.” As would, Black concedes with startling candor after we raise the issue, another terrorist attack on U.S. soil. “Certainly it would be a big advantage to him,” says Black. (link)

The McCain campaign quickly sent out released distancing itself from the quote, followed up by an apology by Black himself for the quote, saying:

“I deeply regret the comments — they were inappropriate,” Black said outside a McCain fundraiser in Fresno, Calif. today.  ” I recognize that John McCain had devoted his entire life to protecting his country and placing its security before every other consideration.” (link)

The comment was made to Fortune 500, and it is odd that, a magazine with a focus on the financial, on the economy, and the article was basically an overview of McCain Economic agenda, and it starts off with a comment about terrorist attacks. In reviewing the article, it almost seemed clumsy how they tried to tie National Security to the Economy, and while there is truth in the assesment that the economy is a national security issue, it just seemed out of place, and whether it was the McCain campaign that made that distinction or Fortune 500, I am unsure.

What is interesting however is the reaction the McCain camp made. It seemed rehearsed, timely, and coordinated. Fortune 500 has been developing this start for two weeks at the most, and Black is well beyond the stage of making freshman mistakes. The McCain camp knew this was coming, and I wonder, intentionally made the quote to cause a stir.

McCain’s perceived strength is national security.  Despite his gaffes with Sunni/Shia mix-ups and other mis-spoken remarks, he has been able to keep the veneer of a national security candidate. Any opportunity to change the discussion to national security helps him. This comment, about a terroritst attack helping McCain is the truth. The sin in this case was it was spoken out loud… and officially by a member of the campaign.

If there was a Terrorist attack on this nation this election season, it would fundamentally change the way the election would come out. No longer would oil prices, the housing market, the economy, or other domestic issues dominate the race. The new focus would be the attack, and what should America do. Obama is considered weaker on national security, and any effort he would make to pin the blame (rightfully) on the Bush Administration would be seen as politically expedient… especially after him tying Bush and McCain together for months on end. Obama would be in the position of being the leading voice of blame, and try to instill confidence in how he would react to the situation. The election campaign would stop, and in that vacuum, McCain would benefit.

The Obama campaign has started hitting back, and it is not surprising they are doing so. However, this seems to be exactly what the McCain camp wants, sifting the discussion to national security… another week where the focus is not on McCain never operating a computer, or his weaker stances on the Economy (self professed at that).